A very interesting and disturbing analysis, thank you. When you look at it this way, it's hard to imagine there's going to be any good outcome. I'm also curious about the question as to whether Putin believes his own image and rhetoric.
I couldn't agree more. I doubt that NATO would intervene by sending in NATO troops, so it owuld just be Russia against Ukraine.
I would be interested in your thoughts on the following questions:
Do you think that Putin has come to believe his own image of himself as the chest pounding fearless leader - the guy who singlehandedly annexed Crimea much to the delight of the general Russian population?
Also, would he necessarily have to completely topple and occupy Ukraine to achieve his objectives. How about an incursion to show he means business? Followed by a pullback to "show" that he is merely protecting Russian speakers who want to be separate?
Even though current sanctions have hurt Russians in general, his power base seems secure and his hold on the country is firm. How badly do you think new sanctions, up to and including ending the gas pipeline deal would hurt? And do you think Europe would be willing to lose it's natural gas supply?
Soon, the Russian military strategy on the ground will change, if it hasn't already. It will focus on degrading infrastructure. This, I don't think, was Russia's original plan, but it's what it will pivot to simply because Putin never expected the Ukraine forces to put up such stiff resistance, nor "the West" to be so unified in its condemnation and sanctions regime.
Russia has to realize that it will be left responsible for rebuilding Ukraine's infrastructure, hence it's initial reluctance to turn the place into rubble as it did in Grozny and Aleppo. But, as I said, that's going to change because pounding Ukraine's city is now the cheapest route, in financial and body-count terms, to ultimate victory. The Russian military is essentially set up to be allege hammer. It has lots of tanks, artillery pieces and bombs. It doesn't have the urban warfare capability that, say, the U.S. Army has (and look how difficult it was for US Forces to contain the insurgency in Iraq). Putin, therefore, will do everything he can to avoid that kind of a grinding outcome, and return to business as usual (Yeah, good luck with that, right?).And therein lies Ukraine's greatest and only opportunity, bloody and tragic though it will be for possibly years to come.
One is reminded of the old saw, “Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should.” Of course, the corollary to that is, “If you don’t, someone else will.” It looks like David’s right; we’re boned.
Extremely interesting take on this whole matter. I find myself in full agreement on most points. Like you, I thought it would have occurred by now. Perhaps, Putin feels he can get most of what he wants without attacking.
A very interesting and disturbing analysis, thank you. When you look at it this way, it's hard to imagine there's going to be any good outcome. I'm also curious about the question as to whether Putin believes his own image and rhetoric.
Excellent summary of the situation, David. Very worthwhile.
Thanks David - very interesting and illuminating.
I couldn't agree more. I doubt that NATO would intervene by sending in NATO troops, so it owuld just be Russia against Ukraine.
I would be interested in your thoughts on the following questions:
Do you think that Putin has come to believe his own image of himself as the chest pounding fearless leader - the guy who singlehandedly annexed Crimea much to the delight of the general Russian population?
Also, would he necessarily have to completely topple and occupy Ukraine to achieve his objectives. How about an incursion to show he means business? Followed by a pullback to "show" that he is merely protecting Russian speakers who want to be separate?
Even though current sanctions have hurt Russians in general, his power base seems secure and his hold on the country is firm. How badly do you think new sanctions, up to and including ending the gas pipeline deal would hurt? And do you think Europe would be willing to lose it's natural gas supply?
All good questions, John. I’ll give ‘em some thought.
Excellent piece, Dave.
thanks for your opinions. scary scary times. sounds like a tom clancy novel brought to life
This is so interesting. I’ve been looking for a summary of what’s happening in Russia/Ukraine and you’ve just provided it, thank you!
Soon, the Russian military strategy on the ground will change, if it hasn't already. It will focus on degrading infrastructure. This, I don't think, was Russia's original plan, but it's what it will pivot to simply because Putin never expected the Ukraine forces to put up such stiff resistance, nor "the West" to be so unified in its condemnation and sanctions regime.
Russia has to realize that it will be left responsible for rebuilding Ukraine's infrastructure, hence it's initial reluctance to turn the place into rubble as it did in Grozny and Aleppo. But, as I said, that's going to change because pounding Ukraine's city is now the cheapest route, in financial and body-count terms, to ultimate victory. The Russian military is essentially set up to be allege hammer. It has lots of tanks, artillery pieces and bombs. It doesn't have the urban warfare capability that, say, the U.S. Army has (and look how difficult it was for US Forces to contain the insurgency in Iraq). Putin, therefore, will do everything he can to avoid that kind of a grinding outcome, and return to business as usual (Yeah, good luck with that, right?).And therein lies Ukraine's greatest and only opportunity, bloody and tragic though it will be for possibly years to come.
As predicted, the Javelin anti-tank weapon is proving something of a savior in Ukraine. In fact, it's being referred to as "Saint Javelin".
https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/02/27/ukraine-war-st-javelin-and-the-missile-that-has-become-a-symbol-of-ukraine-s-resistance
Thanks Panda. High praise from you.
One is reminded of the old saw, “Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should.” Of course, the corollary to that is, “If you don’t, someone else will.” It looks like David’s right; we’re boned.
Extremely interesting take on this whole matter. I find myself in full agreement on most points. Like you, I thought it would have occurred by now. Perhaps, Putin feels he can get most of what he wants without attacking.