This is a tricky one David. You're dead right about none of our existing "treaties" having serious teeth and it would be a real coup if we could get ourselves into NATO. it would be the best deterrent we could have, short of nuclear weapons which may only make us a threat and a target.
Our arguments for inclusion in the club are actually quite strong. Although we can't bring much firepower to NATO compared to the European and North American members, we have other items to bring to the table:
1. Our strategic staging position as a massive, unsinkable presence spanning 3 of the world's 5 oceans, Pacific, Indian and Southern.
2. We have seen first hand in Ukraine the disruption to supply of energy, resources and food. It would be a massive hit to NATO countries to have Australia taken out of the supply chain for all these things which would then be taken over by an enemy. (Let's not mention China, but they would love to have our iron ore, coal, gas and food, as well as the resources of the new economy like lithium, copper, rare earths, etc.).
3. We are politically and economically stable and on good terms with all NATO countries.
4. We are rich enough to pay our own way and not need financial support to meet our treaty commitments.
5. Three of the major NATO players, US, UK and France already have a presence in our region.
If we can't talk our way into NATO, what about PATO? Unfortunately, Article 5's are a two edged sword. Suppose we joined the potential members you named, that would commit us to defense of any of those countries that were attacked. Would we want to be committed to sending our navy to go up against China in defense of Fiji? Or Vanuatu? Something China might do with a small country to test the alliance. Would Japan or South Korea send large forces and leave their northern flanks, close to China, Russia and North Korea, vulnerable to opportunistic attack?
If NATO rejects our advances, I think our next best option is a limited PATO, consisting of US, France, UK all of whom have real clout and have have local interests.
John, the "porcupine " idea is deterrence of an attack by making a superior enemy think twice about the cost in blood and treasure of initiating action. An Article 5 treaty which brings other big players in on our side would seem to be a significant deterrent.
Your faith in NATO is quaint. I do not share it. Your best bets? Go nuclear, hope Japan re-arms and pray for Biden to be impeached. And develop as good as a relationship with China as you can. America will have neither the will or the means to be much help. NZ and the UK? SOL. I think NATO and the EU are kaput but maybe you are right.
I think Australia is the obvious choice. No one will come to your aid. The US & the UK are kaput. Russia is a nuclear power. Australia is not. The US has cut Ukraine loose and China iwns the Biden crime family, academia, Wall Street, Big Tech, the Pentagon and most everything. Australia will shut down and lockdown over a covid scare and China walks in unopposed.
You can get Chinese language courses pretty cheap nowdays. You cannot depend on the US anymore, unless you need to know the latest pronouns.
The idea of joining NATO is, I believe, a non starter. In order to join, all member countries must agree and I doubt if some of the European countries abutting Russia would see much benefit from having a member country half a world away.
Your idea of a regional mutual defense organization comprised of members who have a strategic interest in the area might be viable. SEATO was supposed to be that, but never got off the ground. Times have changed though
Very informative article. Explains a lot, doesn't it. You really are on the ball David.
Sonja
Very insightful. If I were still on the Staff, I would put it forward as recommended reading.
Self employed
#shivers
2027 is not far off
Other than semi conductors, where should we be investing?
Love the litany of quotes
Thank you
This is a tricky one David. You're dead right about none of our existing "treaties" having serious teeth and it would be a real coup if we could get ourselves into NATO. it would be the best deterrent we could have, short of nuclear weapons which may only make us a threat and a target.
Our arguments for inclusion in the club are actually quite strong. Although we can't bring much firepower to NATO compared to the European and North American members, we have other items to bring to the table:
1. Our strategic staging position as a massive, unsinkable presence spanning 3 of the world's 5 oceans, Pacific, Indian and Southern.
2. We have seen first hand in Ukraine the disruption to supply of energy, resources and food. It would be a massive hit to NATO countries to have Australia taken out of the supply chain for all these things which would then be taken over by an enemy. (Let's not mention China, but they would love to have our iron ore, coal, gas and food, as well as the resources of the new economy like lithium, copper, rare earths, etc.).
3. We are politically and economically stable and on good terms with all NATO countries.
4. We are rich enough to pay our own way and not need financial support to meet our treaty commitments.
5. Three of the major NATO players, US, UK and France already have a presence in our region.
If we can't talk our way into NATO, what about PATO? Unfortunately, Article 5's are a two edged sword. Suppose we joined the potential members you named, that would commit us to defense of any of those countries that were attacked. Would we want to be committed to sending our navy to go up against China in defense of Fiji? Or Vanuatu? Something China might do with a small country to test the alliance. Would Japan or South Korea send large forces and leave their northern flanks, close to China, Russia and North Korea, vulnerable to opportunistic attack?
If NATO rejects our advances, I think our next best option is a limited PATO, consisting of US, France, UK all of whom have real clout and have have local interests.
Hmmm.
Sorry about the long winded ramblings David.
Shane, how does this tie in with the "porcupine" idea you talked about in (I think ) June?
John, the "porcupine " idea is deterrence of an attack by making a superior enemy think twice about the cost in blood and treasure of initiating action. An Article 5 treaty which brings other big players in on our side would seem to be a significant deterrent.
Hi Shane:
That is what i meant. Some of both.
Your faith in NATO is quaint. I do not share it. Your best bets? Go nuclear, hope Japan re-arms and pray for Biden to be impeached. And develop as good as a relationship with China as you can. America will have neither the will or the means to be much help. NZ and the UK? SOL. I think NATO and the EU are kaput but maybe you are right.
Why should Biden be impeached??
If Trump can’t be impeached after the Jan 6th mess, no one can!
Thanks, Panda. High praise from my favourite lieutenant colonel.
NATO - North ATLANTIC Treaty Organization
I think Australia is the obvious choice. No one will come to your aid. The US & the UK are kaput. Russia is a nuclear power. Australia is not. The US has cut Ukraine loose and China iwns the Biden crime family, academia, Wall Street, Big Tech, the Pentagon and most everything. Australia will shut down and lockdown over a covid scare and China walks in unopposed.
You can get Chinese language courses pretty cheap nowdays. You cannot depend on the US anymore, unless you need to know the latest pronouns.
Sorry, who do you work for?
The idea of joining NATO is, I believe, a non starter. In order to join, all member countries must agree and I doubt if some of the European countries abutting Russia would see much benefit from having a member country half a world away.
Your idea of a regional mutual defense organization comprised of members who have a strategic interest in the area might be viable. SEATO was supposed to be that, but never got off the ground. Times have changed though