The world feels on the Brink. Actually, several of them
There seem to be so many brinks out there right now — y’know, “brinks” as in the extreme edges of geopolitical cliffs — that, if we’re not careful, we’re liable to trip and accidentally fall into some catastrophic abyss. So, for safety’s sake, let’s catalogue those brinks so we all know where not to step.
The newest brink first, India and Pakistan.
These guys have been at it since 1947, when India was petitioned following the end of British rule. Pakistan is Muslim, India Hindu. At issue is the former princely state of Kashmir sandwiched between the two. Or maybe the real problem is the heady mix of testosterone, religion, and national pride. Anyway, both antagonists control chunks of Kashmir, and both also lay claim to all of it. China is in the mix there, too, incidentally, having been ceded a chunk of the contested real estate by Pakistan back in the day, the deal not recognised by India. And maybe Beijing will complicate the situation further down the track (things haven’t been great between India and China along the so-called “Line of Contact” in Kashmir, either), but right now it’s just India and Pakistan going toe-to-toe.
This latest incident was triggered when five armed Pakistani militants shot and killed 26 Indian tourists on India-controlled Kashmir territory. India claimed the government of Pakistan supported the terrorists and retaliated with airstrikes on nine targets in Pakistan, killing 31 civilians, including women and children, and wounding 46 others[1].
Pakistan announced that its Chinese-built J-20 fighters shot down five Indian Air Force fighter aircraft and multiple drones involved in the attack. India says none of its aircraft were downed, but, at odds with this, wreckage of an India Air Force French-built Rafale has been posted online.
India and Pakistan then fired off missiles, artillery shells, and drones at each other’s cities. India claimed to have intercepted them all, while Pakistan said it knocked out all of India’s incoming.
India and Pakistan have around 140 nuclear warheads between them — enough to kill millions and spread radioactive fallout around the globe. The question is, are they crazy enough to press the big red button?
The two nations continued to exchange ordnance until a ceasefire was negotiated on Saturday, May 10th. And then, before the ink was dry, they promptly renewed kinetic hostilities against each other.
Tempers are high, the blood is up. The world is holding its breath. Where is this going? India and Pakistan have around 140 nuclear warheads between them — enough to kill millions and spread radioactive fallout around the globe. The question is, are they crazy enough to press the big red button?
Next stop, Israel, Iran, and the United States.
Perhaps it’s stating the obvious, but Iran and Israel are mortal enemies.
A little background (because these conflicts don’t just suddenly wink into being). From the day the Ayatollah took over business from the Shah back in ’79, the Islamic Republic has considered Israel its Number One enemy, with the United States (what Iran calls “the great Satan”) coming in a hair’s breadth behind in second place (and, indeed, many in the theological dictatorship believe Israel and the US to be the same entity).
Today’s issue – Iran’s quest for nukes.
Despite the self-evident facts on the ground, Tehran has consistently denied that it has a nuclear weapons program, which it began to actively pursue during the late 1980s while engaged in a brutal war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
In the early 2000s, fleeing Iranian dissidents revealed a couple of new uranium enrichment sites, and troubling evidence of a bomb development program also surfaced.
Despite the self-evident facts on the ground, Tehran has consistently denied that it has a nuclear weapons program, which it began to actively pursue during the late 1980s while engaged in a brutal war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq
The existential threat Iran's possession of nukes posed to Israel was crystallized by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he announced in a 2005 speech that, “Israel must be wiped from the map,” a quote he attributed to Ayatollah Khomeini.
The threat has been reiterated numerous times since.
In the following decade, President Obama forged the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, otherwise known as the “Iran Deal,” whereby, for sanctions relief and permission to independently inspect its nuclear facilities, Iran would suspend the enrichment of uranium. (A brief explanation of this process — the fissile uranium isotope U-235 is what’s required to make bombs, but it only occurs naturally in concentrations of about 0.7%, and the rest is non-fissile U-238. Enrichment occurs when uranium hexafluoride gas, a mix of U-235 and U-238, is spun at supersonic speeds in centrifuges).
But then President Trump tore up the deal in 2018 on the basis that, because of the lifting of sanctions as part of the Deal, the West was essentially funding Iranian-backed terror groups surrounding and striking Israel (and that, anyway, the Deal was only a pause in enrichment).
The Europeans tried to keep the Iran Deal going without the US, but it ultimately collapsed, and, in 2019, Iran announced that it would continue its paused program of uranium enrichment.
Cut along to the current Gaza crisis. The coupling of US assistance and laser-focused Israeli determination[2] has resulted in the emasculation of Hamas and Hezbollah, the collapse of Assad’s Syria, the capitulation of the Houthis, and the demise of any number of militia and outright terror groups in the Middle East. Iran’s once-effective “Axis of Resistance” is now dead, if not yet completely buried.
Iran’s theocracy is quite possibly feeling the hot breath of existential demise on its neck, and the only “cards” (to use the US president’s analogy) it has left to play are nuclear ones
On top of this, a significant air raid on Iran’s missile defenses by Israeli warplanes in October 2024[3] left Tehran exposed and open to further attacks.
In short, Iran’s theocracy is quite possibly feeling the hot breath of existential demise on its neck, and the only “cards” (to use the US president’s analogy) it has left to play are nuclear ones.
In fact, experts believe that today, Iran has a stockpile of uranium U-235 enriched to 60% (weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90% or more). Israel believes the Islamic Republic is mere months away from building nuclear weapons. Once Tehran gets “the bomb,” will it play the mutually assured destruction game with nuclear-armed Israel and be satisfied with mere threats? Or will Iran’s leadership attempt to make good on its promises and attempt to liquidate Israel?
The wild card is Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. He would like to clear the board of all threats to Israel and is said to have been attempting to convince members of the US administration (such as the recently fired National Security Advisor Tim Waltz) to green light an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities while its guard is weakened.
Concurrently, President Trump is attempting to resuscitate a version of Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, saying that if Iran won’t come to the negotiating table, "there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before."
Underpinning this threat, the United States has stationed six B-2 Spirit bombers — one of its premier deterrence assets — on the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, placing the stealth bombers well within the unrefueled range of Iran’s nuclear facilities. It also has two carrier battle groups operating in the Gulf, and redeployed Patriot air defense batteries and other missile defenses to vulnerable US facilities in the region to guard against retaliation.
In an announcement last week, representatives from Iran and the US will meet soon in Oman to discuss Iran’s uranium enrichment program and sanctions. Everyone is tense. No one expects a positive outcome. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is impatient and has a reputation for acting first and consulting Uncle Sam later.
China, Taiwan, United States
The People’s Republic of China claims Taiwan is a rogue breakaway province. Taiwan says it’s a sovereign, independent democracy, and America agrees. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) conduct almost daily exercises around Taiwan, penetrating its waters and airspace in what appear to be dress rehearsals for a full-scale invasion.
The world knows China will make its move sooner rather than later. What’s not entirely clear is how the United States will react, and whether it will call on its allies (such as Japan, Australia, South Korea, and others) to help out.
At issue for almost every trading nation on Earth is that the Taiwan Strait, the narrow body of water (130 km/81 miles at its narrowest) that separates the island of Taiwan from the mainland, is, perhaps, THE critical shipping waterway upon which their economies rely.
The world knows China will make its move sooner rather than later. What’s not entirely clear is how the United States will react, and whether it will call on its allies (such as Japan, Australia, South Korea, and others) to help out
Hawks say the PLAN could theoretically blockade the Strait, effectively putting China’s boot on the neck of Western prosperity. Doves say China would never do that as its own prosperity relies on the free movement of goods around the planet.
Who is right? And are we prepared to be “all in” with either?
The greatest danger, again, is that both China and the US are nuclear-armed. They’re also currently locked in an economic war for global supremacy. Much is at stake, not the least of which, for both nations, is national pride. Things between the two could easily get out of hand.
Russia, Ukraine, & Europe
This one is harder to call than you might think. On the ground in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine’s armed forces seem to have survived Russia’s summer offensive, trading a little ground for Russian bodies. Lots and lots of Russian bodies. The total casualty numbers (dead, wounded, captured) for Russia are north of 900,000. Ukrainian sources claim the number of Russian tanks destroyed, abandoned, or captured to be in the vicinity of 10,000.
Yes, Russian forces continue to nibble away at Ukrainian territory, especially in the region of the city of Pokrovsk in the Donbas Oblast. Russia also claims to have driven Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region with assistance from North Korean troops.
Meanwhile, though, Ukrainian units have penetrated Russia’s border defenses yet again and are carrying out offensive operations near the Russian city of Belgorod.
In fact, Putin's effort to paint a positive image of Russia’s position in this war hides considerable tarnish.
Numerous observers believe Russia’s economy is faltering due to lower oil prices (caused by Trump’s global tariff war) and that the Kremlin will find it difficult to sustain military operations at the current intensity for more than a couple of months
Numerous observers believe Russia’s economy is faltering due to lower oil prices (caused by Trump’s global tariff war) and that the Kremlin will find it difficult to sustain military operations at the current intensity for more than a couple of months.
And while Ukraine’s prospects did seem bleak back in February of this year, several key factors have turned things around. For one thing, Western Europe has rallied with financial support and weapons. And then there’s the 30-day ceasefire agreed to unconditionally by Ukraine. The United States now sees Russia as the recalcitrant party on the path to this, with Trump becoming increasingly impatient and frustrated that this “deal” is taking far too long to happen. The US has also recently signed on to the joint Reconstruction Investment Fund, giving it a stake in Ukraine’s continued freedom and prosperity. In addition, Washington has quietly committed US$2bn to bolster Ukraine’s domestic weapons production.
Putin, however, doesn’t see any of this as the proverbial writing on the wall. He has greenlit investment in a facility that will produce more than 6000 metric tonnes of explosives, enough to manufacture well over a million 152mm artillery shells, increasing Russia’s annual output of this ammunition by 50%.
He’s also overseeing the creation of yet another military academy, the formation of multiple new units and corps, and, according to Western military observers and Russian milbloggers, clearly restructuring the Russian military for direct conflict with NATO.
And all the while, the state-controlled media is conditioning the Russian people into believing that the much-celebrated victory of the Great Patriotic War (WWII for us in the West) was merely Part One in the continuing battle for Russia’s very survival.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Eurasia Center, sums it up thus: “Putin has made confrontation with the West the organizing principle for Russian life. No matter what efforts Trump makes, Russia under Putin will never be a country that does not pose a threat to Europe and the United States.”
So, what are the stakes here? Well, as Putin has pointed out endlessly, Russia has nuclear weapons. In fact, it has 1,710 thermonuclear warheads of various yields deployed (with more than 4000 in storage). The US has 1,770 deployed (with 1,938 on standby).
In short, should the conflict in Ukraine lead to a wider war, Putin’s Russia and a goaded America have enough nukes to kill all of us many times over.
North Korea, South Korea
Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s “Dear Leader,” wants a seat at the geopolitical table. He has sent millions of artillery shells (and tens of thousands of rockets) to help Putin win in Ukraine. When this wasn’t enough, he sent North Korean boots to put on the Kursk region’s ground.
Western analysts believe the quid pro quo for this support is Russian assistance with miniaturising Kim’s nuclear warheads and technology to improve the hermit kingdom’s satellite performance.
…like Putin’s strategic rationale du jour, Kim’s organizing principle for his population is that they’re in an existential battle against the West
And, like Putin’s strategic rationale du jour, Kim’s organizing principle for his population is that they’re in an existential battle against the West. To keep stirring this pot, Kim authorises missile tests that he knows are watched keenly by South Korea, Japan, and the United States.
Most recently, North Korea conducted nuclear counter-strike exercises and issued direct threats against its neighbours and the US, launched a 5000-ton warship with vertical launch systems for nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles, and announced the construction of its first nuclear-powered submarine, potentially capable of launching nukes against, you guessed it, “the West.”
Kim Jong Un wants his nation to be recognized as a nuclear power and accorded the respect he thinks this deserves. To achieve this aim, his statements and posturing are becoming ever more aggressive and assertive. Even shrill. If he doesn’t get what he wants, is it possible that he could resort to providing the world with a practical demonstration — perhaps something like a nuclear airburst above a South Korean city?
Kosovo–Serbia
The last thing Europe needs is another war in its midst, but one could be brewing. Remember the bloody ethnic wars that followed the breakup of Communist Yugoslavia in the early 1990s? The Srebrenica massacre? NATO’s bombing of Serbia? Or the rise and fall of Slobodan Milosevic, the Serbian president who stoked and unleashed the ethnic tensions that killed thousands across the Balkans? Well, that pot is being stirred anew.
Back in the day, Kosovo and Serbia were both once part of the Ottoman Empire before becoming constituent parts of Josip Tito’s non-aligned Yugoslavia. After the dictator’s death in 1980, the federation began to unravel, which was further accelerated by the fall of the USSR.
Tito had granted Kosovo autonomy after World War II. But in 1990, Milosevic revoked that autonomy, triggering unrest among the region’s ethnic Albanian majority, long marginalized by Belgrade. Ethnic Albanian resistance led to the Kosovo War of 1998–99, which triggered a brutal Serbian crackdown. Then NATO intervened with an air campaign, and that forced Milosevic’s withdrawal.
Kosovo has recently conducted police operations in Serb-majority areas in the north, asserting its authority. Serbia has threatened retaliation and is using the crisis to stoke nationalist, anti-Albanian sentiment in the region
In 2008, Kosovo, confident in its future, declared independence. Over 100 countries recognized its sovereignty, but not Serbia, Russia, China, and others. Today, Serbia still claims Kosovo as its own and actively supports ethnic Serb communities within its borders, where tensions are now boiling over.
Kosovo has recently conducted police operations in Serb-majority areas in the north, asserting its authority. Serbia has threatened retaliation and is using the crisis to stoke nationalist, anti-Albanian sentiment in the region. Pushed to respond, Kosovo has announced plans to increase its defense budget by a whopping 60%.
The United Nations has stepped in to de-escalate, but the situation remains fragile. And in the background, Russia continues to destabilize the region, waging a gray war of cyber attacks, disinformation, and sabotage against NATO, the UN, and the West.
Conclusion:
I don’t know about you, but I just thank my lucky stars that at this very moment in history we’re blessed with a responsible, thoughtful, globally aware, and diplomatically astute administration in the White House that can help steer the world through these difficult times!
[1] Accounts differ on most of these numbers
[2] I’m in no way celebrating or diminishing the misery or the humanitarian crisis this “laser focus” has caused.
[3] …in response to Iran’s significant missile attack on Israel, which was itself a response to an Israeli attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria.
If you’ve got a subject you’d like me to explore, drop me a note at drollins1@mac.com
Good call, Steven. You could be right about the Plutonium. I completely forgot about the Russian-built reactor Iran has. Apparently, Pu-239 is not readily extracted from that type of reactor, but Iran could have woven some after-market trickery into the back end (and probably has). As for the bomb-making potential of Pu-239, it still requires a high percentage of the fissile isotopes. Apparently, when it comes out of the reactor, at most it's around 70% pure. A quick dive into the sources says the fissile isotopes would have to be in excess of 93%.
Common lore says that 90% enrichment of U-235 is "weapons grade." However, "Little Boy," in 1945 was considerably less. Around 50-60% ish. Wasn't a really good bomb, as nukes go today, but it worked. Made a heck of a mess. But, one other problem that I've never seen addressed: what about their plutonium? Surely they're harvesting that from their reactors, too. Pu-239 makes bombs.