THE CRYSTAL BALL REVEALS THE FUTURE OF UKRAINE
An opinion
I’ve crossed palms with silver and gazed into the orb, hoping to see what will shake out for Ukraine from the results of the US elections on November 5th. But it’s telling me that I’m getting ahead of myself and should focus first on the election itself. Good idea. The choice on offer is so stark that at least 50% of America is convinced that if the other side wins, the devil will reign. I’m sure a few world leaders share the same view but for different reasons. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, for example.
Putin’s outlook: US Vice President Kamala Harris has called him a “murderous dictator” and vowed to keep supporting Kyiv militarily, economically, and politically.
And Zelensky’s: Former President Donald Trump, Putin’s favorite phone-a-friend, has called the fight between Ukraine and Russia a “loser’s war” and blamed the Ukrainian president for letting it happen. He also said that he’d end the war overnight. There’s little doubt “the end” would be heavily weighted in Putin’s favor and would begin with Trump turning off the weapons spigot.
Whatever the election result, history tells us that wars often have momentum independent of political ambitions and that the actual political framework of any ceasefire, armistice, or truce is largely determined by what’s happening on the battlefield. So, to see what “peace” might look like in Ukraine, the first step is to overview the battlefield situation. If a ceasefire were called today, with the two sides cooling off to consider terms, in whose favor would the balance lie?
History tells us that wars often have momentum independent of political ambitions and that the actual political framework of any ceasefire, armistice, or truce is largely determined by what’s happening on the battlefield
Presently, the war is one of attrition, but weighted in Russia’s favor since the capture of Avdiivka with its forces nibbling away at Ukrainian territory in the Donbas Oblast and lately taking back around 50% of the territory won by Ukraine in its surprise incursion in Russia’s Kursk region.
Also, North Korea and Iran are proving to be dependable and reliable Russian allies, delivering promised weapons on schedule, with Pyongyang now confirmed to have sent troops to the conflict (the numbers and type of troops are in dispute — anywhere up to 15,000, including around 2000 from NK’s “elite” Storm Corps believed to now be fighting Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region). China is also successfully flying under the West’s sanction radar in its support for Moscow, providing microchips and tooling to help Russian industry, now fully committed to a war economy, churn out weapons. And, of course, China and India are continuing to buy Russian oil, which is going a long way toward funding Putin’s shebang.
In Zelensky’s camp, the picture is less rosy. While the West continues to supply weapons and cash, the flashy public promises of hardware are rarely matched with timely delivery schedules. And the once staunch announcements of support appear to be wilting in numerous European nations, with domestic populations tiring of the conflict and its cost. The rise in popularity of far-right governments and oppositions that seem less offended by Putin’s actions also don’t help the solidarity of support for Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty.
Zelensky continues to insist that territory captured by Russia, including Crimea, must be returned to Ukrainian control and that all Russian invaders must withdraw behind Russia’s borders
Now, more than at any time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, calls can be heard for a peace settlement. So, back to what that might look like? Zelensky continues to insist that territory captured by Russia, including Crimea, must be returned to Ukrainian control and that all Russian invaders must withdraw behind Russia’s borders. However, as per the battlefield dispositions outlined above, that’s an impossible dream at present.
Aside from Zelensky’s “Victory” proposal, are there any others on the table?
Well, there’s the peace plan proposed by former Trump Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, which may or may not have been approved by Trump. It begins by addressing a Trumpian bugbear: the insistence that all NATO countries raise their defense expenditures to at least 3% of GDP (of the 30 European NATO countries, only Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Greece currently spend +3%, with Lithuania just under the bar at 2.85%).
Other points include a USD$500bn lend-lease style loan to rebuild Ukraine, the establishment of a separate $100bn loan underwritten by the US to augment and supplement Ukraine’s armed forces (with purchases from a ramped-up US defense industry, of course), a lifting of the restrictions placed on how Ukraine uses US-supplied weapons, support for Ukraine’s rapid acceptance into NATO and the EU, the non-recognition of Russian ownership of any territory it has claimed, an international peacekeeping force along the border shared by Ukraine and Russia and, last but not least, that the cost of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction is funded by frozen Russian assets held by the West. If Russia accedes to all these conditions, Pompeo’s peace plan contends, Western sanctions against Russia will then be progressively lifted.
So, that’s what Ukraine gets from the deal, but what about Russia? What does Putin walk away with? He gets Crimea and a bunch of territories it largely controlled anyway before things went kinetic back in February 2022.
Essentially, Pompeo’s peace plan is a US wish list created in a world where Washington is the accepted global puppet master whose needs both Ukraine and Russia must kowtow to. However, inserting a little reality, the Pompeo Plan doesn’t take into account that present battlefield situation. And critically, it ignores Zelensky’s bottom line that the only peace plan he’ll agree to has all Russian-held territory, including Crimea, returned. Furthermore, it doesn’t take into account Putin’s needs on the home front, which are of considerable consequence to him.
Taking Putin’s perspective first, the war he started has cost in the vicinity of 750,000 casualties (dead and wounded) and hollowed out a core demographic. It has mangled his army, sunk his Black Sea fleet, and put to the sword Russia’s once-proud reputation of having the world’s second-most formidable military
So, taking his perspective first, the war Putin started has cost in the vicinity of 750,000 casualties (dead and wounded), hollowing out a core demographic. It has mangled his army, sunk his Black Sea fleet, and put to the sword Russia’s once-proud reputation of having the world’s second-most formidable military. It has made Russia’s military technology seem second-rate, reducing the customer lineup and spoiling a lucrative source of foreign exchange. It has reawakened NATO, put a spring in its step, and caused the alliance to expand with two new members on or close to Russia’s borders, Finland and Sweden. It has caused Ukraine to build up its military, from around 200,000 troops armed mostly with Soviet-era weapons in 2020 to around 900,000 mostly battle-hardened soldiers with additional reserves, fielding more or less state-of-the-art NATO weaponry, making Ukraine’s forces arguably more powerful than the armies of Britain, France, and Germany combined. It has made Russia a client state of the People's Republic of China and caused it to cough up valuable military technology to Iran and North Korea in exchange for drones, missiles, and, recently, those NK Storm Corps boots on the ground. It has cost billions in Russian treasure, alienated the Kremlin from much of the rest of the world, set back its industries a decade or so, and no doubt made Putin’s power base more than a little jumpy.
Any peace plan the Russian president is likely to agree to will have to demonstrate to his people and the oligarchs who support him that, in no uncertain terms, this war has been worth it
In other words, any peace plan the Russian president is likely to agree to will have to demonstrate to his people and the oligarchs who support him that, in no uncertain terms, this war has been worth it. To begin with, Putin continues to stick to his guns about the “denazification” of Ukraine, which means he wants his neighbor demilitarised and a Russia-friendly government back in control. So, with the upper hand on the battlefield and the West’s apparent flagging support for Kyiv, agreeing to Ukraine joining the EU and NATO will be dismissed immediately. The West providing hundreds of billions in loans for weapons to Ukraine will also likewise be off the table. Why would Putin agree to continue having an angry neighbor armed to the teeth camped on his doorstep?
In fact, there’s almost nothing in the Plan d’Pompeo that would appeal to Putin. And if he were to sign off on it, it could only be because he has no intention of sticking to the deal, which would be a move in keeping with his usual modus operandi.
It’s reasonable to estimate that (Ukraine’s) losses could be at least half of Russia's: approximately 400,000 to 450,000. But, given that Ukraine’s population is about a quarter of Russia's, these figures would be equivalent to over 1.6 million casualties if applied to the aggressor
And then there’s Zelensky’s perspective. To begin with, although Ukraine hasn’t released casualty figures, it’s reasonable to estimate that its losses could be at least half of Russia's: approximately 400,000 to 450,000. But, given that Ukraine’s population is about a quarter of Russia's, these figures would be equivalent to over 1.6 million casualties if applied to the aggressor (which explains the relentless success of Russia’s “meat wave” tactics). Also, Russia has inflicted at least a trillion dollars worth of damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure and private dwellings, leveling whole cities, power grids, and ports. Moreover, there is now a national hatred of their neighbor, whose brutality millions of Ukrainians have experienced firsthand. Many prisoners swapped with Russian captives are routinely found to have been tortured. Mass graves of brutally tortured civilians and soldiers have been unearthed in places like Bucha, Izium, Kherson, and many others. Ukraine’s economy is hanging by a thread and only functions due to the West’s largess. Past experience tells Zelensky and his people that if Russia gets its way with Putin paying no price for his invasion, no matter what the terms, there will be an Invasion 2.0 sometime in the medium future. And, in the meantime, Zelensky knows he’ll probably be shown the window from a multi-story hotel.
So, what all that suggests is an impasse. The military situation on the ground would have to deteriorate markedly for either side to cave in to the other’s demands. And that’s why, soon after the US elections, and no matter who wins, the crystal ball says the war in Ukraine will turn on a dime.
If Kamala Harris wins…
If Kamala Harris wins, I can see clearly that she’ll gild the president’s creds as leader of the free world. A woman can be tough, right? (If you don’t believe me, let me introduce you to my wife, Sam.) President Harris will remove the restrictions placed on US weapons used in Ukraine, allowing Kyiv to strike deep within Russia so that its airfields, ammunition dumps, command centers, and key railroads, including the ones between Russia and HK, can be taken out. She’ll dismiss Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling for the hollow bluster it is and announce that her Administration is backing Zelensky (finally) TO WIN.
If Donald Trump wins…
And if Donald Trump wins — well, good luck predicting with certainty what Trump will do (even the crystal ball struggles), but the widely accepted view is that his Administration will bring a halt to America underwriting Ukraine’s defense, leaving Zelensky with no choice but to concede. (Frankly, I think that would be a disaster for world peace for all the reasons that have become something of a cliché — emboldening China’s desire to absorb Taiwan militarily and the rash of dictatorships around the world similarly eyeing off their neighbors. It’ll accelerate Iran’s arming with nukes, and who knows what Kim Jong Un will do with the Russian weapons technology that’s the quid pro quo for NK’s engagement in the war. With a puppet government in Kyiv, Moldova will be next as Putin strives to connect with the breakaway Russian state of Transnistria. NATO will puff out its chest. The military spending of countries like Poland will go through the roof, and the Baltic states will get very jumpy indeed. We’ll be in for a bumpy ride.)
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, with victory handed to Putin in all but name (and you can be certain he’ll be calling it that back home), Zelensky (and his family) will go into protective custody in Britain or the US, and a Kremlin-friendly government will be installed in Kyiv. Ukraine’s military will be disarmed and demobilized. The Russian GRU (military intelligence) will then go to work, hunting down the people responsible for the backbone of Ukraine’s defense. It will be brutal, and the weight of the Russian yoke will keep Ukrainian heads bowed, but not for long. The 900,000 Ukrainian soldiers who lost friends and comrades, who have no work because Ukraine’s economy is broken and Russia has scant resources to pick it up and dust it down, will be seething for revenge. And, of course, Ukraine has been awash with weapons for several years; there’ll be secret buried caches everywhere. As well, the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian mothers and fathers who’ve lost sons, daughters, and loved ones will lend a hand.
And, poof, just like that, the crystal ball sees Ukraine turning into Afghanistan.
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So all fingers and toes crossed that Harris wins.