How to invade Taiwan and get away with it
I can imagine Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, standing on the shore gazing across the Taiwan Strait, finding the outline of Taiwan in the mist and muttering to himself, “One day… One Day…”
And while, as I say, that picture is all in my mind as Taiwan lies around 100 miles off the coast and isn’t visible from the shoreline of the PRC, Xi has been quoted saying something along the lines of, “By 2050, Taiwan shall be mine… bwahaha…” In fact, it’s likely much sooner for reasons I’ll go into a little down the track here.
Strategic and economic reasons underpin Xi’s determination to subjugate Taiwan. Legacy has a lot to do with it, too. He wants to be the leader who unifies China — no more of this One China, Two Systems malarky. Xi has brought Hong Kong to heel. With Taiwan in the fold, he will have the boxed set, and this will be acknowledged by history.
Strategically, if Xi can assert control over Taiwan, he will have bested the world’s top superpower, the United States, and, in so doing, elevate the PRC to the dominant position. He will have reshaped the global power dynamic and secured China’s dominance in the Asia-Pacific region, if not globally.
Economically, Taiwan is a potential jewel in the crown. It manufactures around 80% of the world’s semiconductors (computer chips), including almost all of the planet’s three-nanometer computer chips. (A sidebar on these 3 NM chips. They are The Cutting-Edge Semiconductor, consuming 35% less energy while providing considerably more processing power than the next best chip. They can be found at the heart of high-end computers, smartphones, military and space technology, and so forth. Putting this dominance in perspective, OPEC, the organization that controls the world’s oil and essentially holds global prosperity within its clammy paw, only has a paltry 40% share of its market. Saudi Arabia — and you know how those guys kick their weight around — control barely 14%.) Given how critical semiconductors are in the development of new technologies such as AI and the importance these industries are in cementing a nation’s future wealth, it’s no wonder Xi wants his island neighbor in the bag.
So, yes, there are good reasons why Xi might be prepared to risk world peace with a tilt at Taiwan, officially the Republic of China or ROC, but is this desire of his in any way righteous?
Does mainland China have a historical claim on Taiwan?
Reaching back through half a dozen centuries, the Chinese, Dutch, Spanish, and Japanese have jousted over the island’s sovereignty. More recently, in 1895, Japan invaded Taiwan (formerly named “Illa Formosa” or Beautiful Island by 16th Century Portuguese explorers) and held onto it until the defeat of Imperial Japan by the Allies in 1945.
Following the withdrawal of Japan’s Imperial forces, China returned to fighting the civil war that began in the 1930s between the Chinese Communist Party led by Mao Zedong and the Nationalist Kuomintang Party (KMT) headed by Chiang Kai-shek (who, incidentally, was also the leader of mainland China from 1928 until 1949). As the battle raged, the Communists gradually won the upper hand, and Chiang Kai-shek, along with over 2 million Chinese refugees, were forced to flee. They fled to Taiwan, which had proclaimed itself a republic in 1945. So, whether the PRC has a legitimate claim over Taiwan is at least open to debate.
The ROC is a democracy that functions as an independent nation even though it has not formally seceded from the mainland
Today, mainland China is ruled by the Communist Party, and the island of Taiwan, the ROC, is a democracy that functions as an independent nation even though (confusingly) it has not formally seceded from the mainland.
And here’s where the United States weighs in. America has fought hot and cold wars against communism since WWII, and when plucky Taiwan resisted being absorbed by Mao’s communist revolution, Washington DC stepped forward as a willing backer. Today, Taiwan stands as a shining example of the United States’ support for democracy. Sure, America also has complex strategic and economic reasons for backing Taiwan’s continuing self-determination but being seen to be doing the right thing, standing firm with an ally whose government is not only democratically elected but exists in the shadow of a far more powerful communist dictatorship, is up there at the top. In short, being Taiwan’s protector is great PR that helps underpin America’s hegemony.
Geography will play a part
Before we get into some battle planning, some background geography. The teardrop-shaped island of Taiwan is 245 miles (395 km) long and just shy of 14,000 square miles (35,000 square kilometers) in area, making it slightly larger than Belgium. It’s a slab of fault rock lifted out of the East China Sea caused by the rubbing together of tectonic plates. So, as you might expect, the island is regularly hit by earthquakes, some of them significant. The island has three mountain ranges running roughly northeast-southwest, and some of those mountains are high. The highest, Yu Shan, tops out at around 12,970 ft, making it taller than Japan’s Mount Fuji (12,390ft). Most of the population resides on the island’s western side, the side facing the mainland, where the land slopes relatively gently to the sea. The eastern side of the island is heavily forested and steep, and it is an excellent place for wildlife (but only because humans can’t make use of it).
The ROC also controls a number of smaller islands, one of them spitting distance from the mainland — lying just two kilometers off its coast.
Some pertinent military stats
Well before the bullets start flying, the conflict will be raging in cyberspace. As in many key areas, China displays a considerable numerical advantage over Taiwan, with cyber warriors numbering in excess of 100,000. They’ll be attacking Taiwan’s communications, power grid, water resources, transport hubs, and financial sector to sow panic and misdirection. But China has been cyber-trolling and probing Western defenses for years, so its tactics, strengths, and limitations are likely to be well assessed. And while Taiwan will have revealed much to its adversary through the fending off of regular probings by the PRC’s digital army, it will have kept its own offensive prowess well under wraps.
The PRC fields one of the world’s largest and best-equipped militaries. It ranks second on the military spending leaderboard behind the United States, spending around $230 billion per year on its army, navy, and air force, and that spending has increased year on year since 1995[1].
Taiwan has just announced its military budget for 2024, which is US$19.1 billion, a comparatively meager amount compared to the mainland's.
China’s navy, the People’s Liberation Army Navy, is now the world’s largest, with more than 370 vessels. It has two older “ski jump” aircraft carriers of Soviet design and one new carrier, the Fujian, a diesel-powered craft a little smaller than the US Gerald R. Ford class. Another carrier is in the yards under construction.
The ROC’s navy has 74 ships (the sources differ, but I’m going with 74 in number), including some modern frigates. The emphasis is on missile delivery platforms and coastal patrol. It has no aircraft carriers.
The People’s Liberation Army Air Force is massive and is the only other nation besides the United States to operate a genuine 5th-generation stealth fighter, the J-20. Overall, the mainland’s air force is said to have around 4000 aircraft, of which 2566 are of varying types of fighter—air dominance, multi-role, fighter-bomber, and ground attack.
The ROC, by comparison, has 411 fighters, half of which are F-16As and Bs, modernized (Block 70-72) F-16Vs, and modernized French Mirage 2000s.
Some factors that may spoil Xi’s day
Those are some of the stats that suggest the ROC doesn’t stand a chance, but as Russia discovered in its two-week special military operation in Ukraine, many other factors could upset predictions. Here are some.
To begin with, the island of Taiwan is not an easy place to invade. The Taiwan Strait has notoriously strong winds for much of the year, with typhoons prevalent from April to September. And for the rest of the time, expect fog.
There aren’t many places on the island suitable for an amphibious assault, either. There are only a few beaches. These are on the western side of the island, overlooked by cliffs and building towers, and are easily defendable. The small arms fire alone raining down on the attackers from those cliffs and buildings would be withering. Forget landing on the eastern side of the island for reasons mentioned earlier.
China certainly has the manpower, fielding the world’s largest army with 2,035,000 active-duty personnel
It's estimated that the PRC would need to invade with up to 1,000,000 boots on the ground. China certainly has the manpower, fielding the world’s largest army with 2,035,000 active-duty personnel. However, supplying a million men in the field with ammo, food, armored vehicles, and other supplies would be a mammoth logistical effort requiring thousands of ships. To put this in perspective, on June 6, 1944, the Allies landed 130,000 troops on the beaches of Normandy on D-Day, the largest amphibious invasion in history, and called on a flotilla of 7000 ships to support it. China’s invasion of Taiwan would make D-Day look like a Sunday regatta.
For China’s “T-Day” to have any chance of success, Taiwan’s fifteen ports would have to be secured early and intact. But, of course, the defense forces of the ROC know this, and the vital infrastructure will be heavily defended and possibly mined in the event of a PRC breakthrough. Indeed, it’s likely that the PRC would end up destroying the very ports its invasion will rely on during the effort to capture and secure them.
So, let’s say the PRC has assembled the gargantuan fleet required to transport and supply the invasion force. Before it departs, the truly awesome buildup will have alerted the ROC military to what’s coming. And once the fleet sails, it’ll be fair game to the installations on the many islands controlled by Taiwan that bristle with anti-ship missiles and other defenses, especially the batteries crammed onto the Penghu archipelago, a chain of some 90 islands huddled between the Chinese mainland and the object of Beijing’s desire. Bolstering these exiting defenses will be up to 400 Harpoon anti-ship missiles recently purchased from the U.S. at a cost of $1.17 billion. And let’s not forget the howling winds, the possibility of an imminent typhoon, and the fog.
Before any anchors are weighed, literally thousands of PLA special forces will have been dispatched to disable these lethal impediments to the main fleet, again warning Taiwan of what’s to come.
This will present a horror-scape of house-to-house, apartment-block-to-apartment-block warfare, the island deploying its 163,000 active service members and 1.6 million reservists to the fight
Assuming that Xi’s amphibious assault makes it off Taiwan’s beaches without being terminally mauled, they’ll then face a densely packed urban environment with the three cities of Taipei, the capital, in the north, Taichung in the center, and Kaohsiung in the south of that gently sloping plain I mentioned. This will present a horror-scape of house-to-house, apartment-block-to-apartment-block warfare, the island deploying its 163,000 active service members and 1.6 million reservists to the fight. And if this urban sprawl and Taiwan’s ground forces don’t blunt the attack, the five rivers and multitude of canals that crisscross the plain most probably will, especially if the bridges spanning them are strategically blown.
Today, modern warfare strategists insist that any attacking force must have command of the air. That should be easy, with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force enjoying a 5-to-1 advantage in fighter aircraft. However, there’s not enough airspace over Taiwan in which to cram the PRC’s thousands of warplanes. And then there’s Taiwan’s air defenses to contend with. At last count, the island had 7 Patriot batteries stocked with the latest missiles augmented with an array of American-made and locally-made short and medium-range ground-to-air missile systems, the numbers of which are unpublished (but let’s assume those numbers are substantial).
Taiwan’s air force will be in the fight too, of course, and while it’s tiny compared to the PLAAF, it’s armed with the latest U.S.-made AIM 120 AMMRAM and Maverick missiles. Taking out Taiwan’s fighter squadrons will prove extremely difficult with several vital installations, such as the Stone Mountain complex at Chihhnang Air Base, having its hangars, service and refueling bays, barracks, and even its runway carved out of the belly of a mountain.
And then there’s the Hengshan Military Command Center, a sprawling underground installation built to withstand a ballistic missile attack, designed to allow thousands of servicemen and women to continue the fight while the battle rages overhead. It’s the hub of the island’s defenses, linked by tunnels to a multitude of early-warning radar, missile defense batteries, air force, and army bases throughout the island, and also has direct links with the U.S. Pacific Command in Hawaii.
Meanwhile, the PRC has been stepping up its efforts to probe Taiwan’s air defenses and hunt for weaknesses. Indeed, for years now, Chinese military aircraft and drones have been penetrating Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), a broad swath of air space in which planes are supposed to identify themselves and obey air traffic controllers. The mainland has been flaunting these rules, sending an ever-increasing number of flights, more than 17,000, into this ADIZ. Experts believe it’s an attempt to normalize the practice. Why? Perhaps one day, instead of turning back, flights of these aircraft and drones will suddenly press an attack, the hope being that Taiwan’s defenses will dismiss the incursion as just more of the same until it’s too late.
But, of course, if it does come to a fight with Communist China, Taiwan won’t be in it alone. As mentioned earlier, the U.S. has been a staunch backer, especially during the Biden Administration, which has pledged unwavering support should the mainland attack. The superpower has placed significant assets on the Japanese island of Okinawa, contingency planning for just this eventuality. These include a potent strike force of long-range F-15 fighters supplemented by early warning aircraft, aerial refueling tankers, and tens of thousands of U.S. Marines.
The United States Navy also stations a carrier strike force in the region and would likely send two more of these powerful assets to the area if a conflict seemed likely. Virtually undetectable American nuclear-powered submarines, each armed with hundreds of long-range cruise missiles, would probably also be deployed to the fight.
Then there’s the U.S. Seventh Fleet based at Yokosuka, Japan, boasting 70 ships and well over a hundred aircraft, all of which would add considerable firepower to Taiwan’s defense.
And other nations in the region would probably join with Taiwan and America, too. Japan, concerned Xi’s China covets some of its remote outer islands, would undoubtedly stand with Taiwan, as would other nations in the region nervous about China’s wider intentions – South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Australia, to name a few. In fact, with the PRC claiming almost the entire South China Sea as its exclusive economic zone and having created a range of military bases on artificial islands in the area, any attempt to invade Taiwan would risk spreading to the entire region and, ultimately, potentially, become a global conflict involving antagonists with nuclear weapons engaged toe-to-toe, especially if the battle drags on.
Spy satellite images have photographed mock-ups of U.S. aircraft carriers and Arleigh-Burke destroyers in China’s Taklamakan Desert, a missile testing site
China looks to be preparing for a potential engagement with the U.S. Navy, developing weapons such as ultra-fast hypersonic anti-ship missiles that experts claim are specifically designed to be carrier killers, tasked to penetrate the carrier’s flight deck and explode deep within the bowels of the vessel. And spy satellites have photographed mock-ups of U.S. aircraft carriers and Arleigh-Burke destroyers in China’s Taklamakan Desert, a missile testing site.
While there’s little doubt that Taiwan’s resistance to any invasion would be robust, experts are divided over the outcome. There are too many variables to predict the result. China definitely has the firepower, the battalions, and the resources to prevail should it manage to land its million pairs of boots on Taiwanese ground. However, two stages of the would-be PRC invasion pose a significant risk to the attacking force. The first is that buildup. It would assemble at numerous ports, one of them being the mainland port of Fuzhou, a deep-water river anchorage adjacent to the northern end of Taiwan across the strait. Thousands of tanks, armored personnel carriers, support vehicles, and a multitude of supplies from ammunition to spares to food, as well as those 1 million men, would also have to be marshaled in the area.
This buildup would, of course, tip Taiwan and her allies off long before the invasion fleet sailed. Another issue — while China has the world’s largest navy, it doesn’t have anything like the military shipping resources to handle the outrageous transport volume required. Civilian container ships, cruise liners, and ferries would have to be commandeered.
Once this fleet of tens of thousands of vessels weighs anchor and begins to steam across the 110-mile strait, it would be vulnerable to attack by anti-ship missiles. The Harpoon missile in Taiwan’s inventory, for example, has a stand-off range of 137 miles (220km) when air-launched. The United States, should it join the battle, also fields the Harpoon as well as deploying the newly acquired and potent Norwegian Naval Strike Missile, a sea-skimming anti-ship cruise missile with a range of up to 160 miles (250km). Taiwan has also invested heavily in smart sea mines that could devastate the fleet. And then there are fast and highly maneuverable sea drones, either remotely operated or of the autonomous AI-powered variety, that would add to the devastation. The densely packed armada, with almost no room to maneuver, would present like fish in the proverbial barrel. The carnage would be truly ghastly.
These potentially horrendous losses would have to be built into China’s battle planning. And, of course, countermeasures would be engaged to minimize the effectiveness of Taiwan’s measures. But what if China could mask the intentions of its buildup? If that were possible, its invasion fleet could potentially avoid being savaged and increase the chances of a swift and successful victory. And here's where Xi’s friends and allies could lend a hand.
How Xi might just pull this off
Now, it’s likely that what I’m about to suggest may have you accusing me of being a writer of thrillers, but trust me, more bizarre strategies than what I’m about to suggest have been thrown against war-room walls to see if they’d stick.
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have openly stated several times that their relationship has “no limits.” Xi has assisted Putin’s desire to conquer Ukraine, buying his oil and sidestepping Western sanctions to deliver all manner of hardware from semiconductors to machinery and spares, all to help the Russian dictator bring his economy onto a war footing and triumph in the conquest of his neighboring state. So, Putin owes Xi big time. One way he could repay that debt would be to launch a surprise attack on one of the Kiril Islands that both Russia and Japan lay claim to and then “saber rattle” about taking the rest.
The newly militarized Japan Defense Force wouldn’t take that lying down, deploying its forces to the north and threatening armed confrontation with Moscow. South Korea, fearful that North Korea might take advantage of the tension, would put its forces on a war footing. North Korea would react accordingly. The United States Seventh Fleet would high-tail it to the conflict area in the northern Pacific Ocean. China would also likewise concentrate its forces, innocently claiming its coastal buildup is purely a defensive action, effectively masking its true intentions. And then, while another conflict diverts the world — WHAMMO, the invasion is launched.
Want another scenario? North Korean president Kim Jong Un likewise depends heavily on China for almost everything, not the least of which is the regime’s long-time survival. The Dear Leader could show his appreciation for this support by test-firing a missile that goes horribly wrong (wink-wink) and lands in a heavily built-up Japanese city, causing much death and destruction. Of course, there would be no apology. Again, as in the first scenario, a regional buildup would be the response.
And if you want a real biggie? Kim Jong Un is assassinated. China is probably the only state that could get close enough with sleeper assets to pull this off. Maybe Kim’s train is de-railed, and sabotage is fingered as the cause. China suggests looking at the United States as the culprit. Maybe the crash site is salted with tell-tale “evidence.” A frenzied Washington denies that it had anything to do with it, as does the next most likely suspect in North Korea’s eyes — South Korea. The North’s generals are spooked and put their entire nuclear ballistic missile fleet on standby. The whole region goes into a kind of defensive diplomatic and military meltdown, with half the world’s nations readying every military asset they can lay their hands on.
Any number of scenarios could trigger a suitable diversion, a well-worn military tactic, and provide Xi with just the cover his invasion plan needs.
Now, here’s the thing… None of this obfuscation will be necessary if the West (the United States) ultimately deserts Ukraine and leaves it to its fate with Russia. And while, as I write, a US$60.1 billion support package for Ukraine has been approved by the fractious U.S. Congress after a six-month delay, this war has several years left in it. Other aid packages will be required. Will the next be delayed or, worse, never even proposed? And what happens if Trump wins power and makes good on his threat to end the Russian-Ukraine war within 24 hours? If this should happen, Putin, an authoritarian strongman, will have triumphed over the so-called rules-based order of Western democracies. He’ll be the poster boy for every other dictator who covets his neighbor’s shit. His lesson? Be bold and get it done. And the world will surely return to the bad old and very violent days of might is right. At the very least, it will be bad for Taiwan.
Why 2027 is the year to watch
President Xi has instructed his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, and military observers believe (mostly) that the PLA has been working hard to meet that deadline. As mentioned earlier, China's defense forces have invested enormous treasure over more than a decade in weapons development, stockpiling, human resources, and training. Xi has also instructed his military to train realistically in order to be better prepared for the realities of war.
But why, specifically, 2027? Because, beyond that year, demographics will really begin to weigh heavily on Xi’s aspirations. China, up until 2023, the world’s most populous nation, has since handed that title to India. In recent quarters, China has announced that its population has actually declined! The One China Policy, which successfully limited the nation’s population growth, has finally caught up with Beijing, biting the Communist Party’s future ambitions hard. And the nation’s rapid switch from an agrarian economy, where having many children that can be used as a free labor force is a benefit, to a manufacturing economy, where having lots of kids running around is seen as a cost, has turbo-charged the problem. The child-bearing population of Communist China would rather have a BMW.
Come 2050, if this trend has continued (and there’s no reason to expect that it won’t), China’s demographic issue will be a cliff, with its population significantly diminished and too many older retired citizens supported by too few hard-working youngsters.
It’s little wonder, then, that Xi has designated 2027 the year of living dangerously.
What might convince China that invading its neighbor is a bad idea?
Self-preservation.
China is the world’s biggest trading nation. It has a massive manufacturing base and equally massive population, and it imports almost everything to power the former and feed the latter. Should China go to war over Taiwan, there’s enough global support for the small, feisty democracy to close the sea lanes to the materials that power China’s economy. You might conclude that this is why China has invested so heavily in its naval buildup, to keep those lanes open should things turn ugly. But the thing is, China doesn’t have a true “blue water” navy adept at maintaining naval operations for long periods away from home.
So, with shops presenting customers with empty shelves, factories with no markets laying off workers, and cash rapidly drying up in the face of a blockade, how long before China’s population takes it out on the Communist Party? Growing the middle class and keeping it contented has been a cornerstone of the regime’s longevity, and Xi knows it.
An open question for Xi and his war planners prior to 2022 might have been whether the West would remain unified in the face of nation-state aggression or buckle. But the West’s response to the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine has largely resolved that question. At least for now. And it’s this unity, more than anything else, that might well prove to be the most effective deterrent in Taiwan’s armory.
— David
[1] The U.S. currently spends just shy of US$1 trillion on defense.
Great analysis David